issue:ST-04, 2 Dec 2025 Conflict, Peace & Security AA’s Pursuit of Junta Arms Plants Looks Uncertain As the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) scales back operations in northern Shan, it has intensified its campaign in the west, where the Arakan Army (AA) is facing sustained pressure along the Rakhine coast. Although the AA may attempt to seize the junta’s Defense Industry (KaPaSa) factories, holding such facilities would be difficult under current conditions.
issue:PET-03, 27 Nov 2025 China Studies • Conflict Economy Myanmar Exported USD 620M Worth of Rare Earths to China in 2025 Myanmar remains a major stakeholder in the global rare earth market. Per 2024 rare earth production records, China stands at the top with 61 percent, followed by Myanmar at 16 percent. Despite a downturn in exports to China in early 2025, Beijing’s drive for supply-chain security points to renewed expansion in Myanmar’s mining sector.
issue:PET-02, 21 Nov 2025 China Studies • Conflict Economy Rising Trade Reporting Discrepancy More than USD 45 billion of the discrepancy has emerged since the 2021 coup. The widening gap reflects conflict-driven border instability, a surge in illegal rare earth mining and exports, and the expansion of Myanmar’s illicit economy.
issue:GT-02, 26 Sep 2025 Conflict Economy • Conflict, Peace & Security Fortune and Risk: The KIO’s Rare Earth Dilemma Following a record decline in rare earth exports to China in 2025, the Chinese government exerted pressure on the KIO, and the KIO’s resource governance plays a key factor in political bargaining and power consolidation.
issue:CST-01, 22 Sep 2025 Conflict, Peace & Security At least 92 Incidents of Civilian Massacres Recorded in Myanmar Of these, 88 were carried out by the Myanmar junta, killing 1,723 civilians. Contrarily, resistance forces were responsible for four incidents, leaving 85 dead.
issue:PET-01, 18 Sep 2025 China Studies Junta Leader Witnesses 7 MoU Deals in China Of the agreements signed in China, two will face daunting implementation challenges, and the rest could bring modest benefits. Their greater significance may lie in Beijing’s conflict mediation efforts.
issue:ST-03, 11 Sep 2025 Conflict, Peace & Security Potential Heirs: Kyaw Swar Lin and Company Debut in China Of the five officers who accompanied the junta chief to China, three are seen as potential leaders of the Tatmadaw’s fourth generation, and were presented to Chinese leaders, firming up succession plan.
issue:ST-02, 22 Aug 2025 Conflict, Peace & Security • Naypyitawlogy The SAC Ended, Power Grip Remains In four and a half years, 33 individuals served as council members, with at least three generals and 14 civilian members removed.
issue:GT-01, 14 Aug 2025 Conflict, Peace & Security The Ta’ang Land Council’s Looming Challenges The PSLF/TNLA, which controls 10 townships within the northern Shan State and the Mandalay Region, has formed the Ta’ang Land Council (TLC). It is now confronting two key governance tests.
issue:ST-01, 24 Jul 2025 Conflict, Peace & Security Fractures Deepen Among Chin Resistance Groups For Chin armed groups, this could exacerbate resource scarcity, threatening to derail any attempt to establish collective goals for the Chin.
