As the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) scales back operations in northern Shan, it has intensified its campaign in the west, where the Arakan Army (AA) is facing sustained pressure along the Rakhine coast. Although the AA may attempt to seize the junta’s Defense Industry (KaPaSa) factories, holding such facilities would be difficult under current conditions.

International consensus on Myanmar centres on the release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the start of inclusive dialogue. As the junta’s latest amnesty still excludes key political figures, pressure over political-prisoner releases is likely to persist.